核心内容摘要
最小二乘拟合 vs 样条插值：如何为你的数据选择最佳拟合方法？
欢迎来到本博客❤️❤️博主优势博客内容尽量做到思维缜密逻辑清晰为了方便读者。
⛳️座右铭行百里者半于九十。
本文内容如下⛳️赠与读者做科研涉及到一个深在的思想系统需要科研者逻辑缜密踏实认真但是不能只是努力很多时候借力比努力更重要然后还要有仰望星空的创新点和启发点。
建议读者按目录次序逐一浏览免得骤然跌入幽暗的迷宫找不到来时的路它不足为你揭示全部问题的答案但若能解答你胸中升起的一朵朵疑云也未尝不会酿成晚霞斑斓的别一番景致万一它给你带来了一场精神世界的苦雨那就借机洗刷一下原来存放在那儿的“躺平”上的尘埃吧。
或许雨过云收神驰的天地更清朗.......
分——内容介绍Dancing with the Stars (DWTS) is the American version of an international television franchisebased on the British show “Strictly Come Dancing” (“Come Dancing” originally). Versions ofthe show have appeared in Albania, Argentina, Australia, China, France, India, and many othercountries. The U.S. version, the focus of this problem, has completed 34 seasons.Celebrities are partnered with professional dancers and then perform dances each week. A panelof expert judges scores each couple’s dance, and fans vote (by phone or online) for their favoritecouple that week. Fans can vote once or multiple times up to a limit announced each week.Further, fans vote for the star they wish to keep, but cannot vote to eliminate a star. The judgeand fan votes are combined in order to determine which couple to eliminate (the lowestcombined score) that week. Three (in some seasons more) couples reach the finals and in theweek of the finals the combined scores from fans and judges are used to rank them from 1st to 3rd(or 4th, 5th).There are many possible methods of combining fan votes and judge scores. In the first twoseasons of the U.S. show, the combination was based on ranks. Season 2 concerns (due tocelebrity contestant Jerry Rice who was a finalist despite very low judge scores) led to amodification to use percentages instead of ranks. Examples of these two approaches are providedin the Appendix.In season 27, another “controversy” occurred when celebrity contestant Bobby Bones wondespite consistently low judges scores. In response, starting in season 28 a slight modification tothe elimination process was made. The bottom two contestants were identified using thecombined judge scores and fan votes, and then during the live show the judges voted to selectwhich of these two to eliminate. Around this same season, the producers also returned to usingthe method of ranks to combine judges scores with fan votes as in seasons one and two. Theexact season this change occurred is not known, but it is reasonable to assume it was season
Judge scores are meant to reflect which dancers are technically better, although there is somesubjectivity in what makes a dance better. Fan votes are likely much more subjective, influencedby the quality of the dance, but also the popularity and charisma of the celebrity. Show producersmight actually prefer, to some extent, conflicts in opinions and votes as such occurrences boostfan interest and excitement.Data with judges scores and contestant information is provided and described below. You maychoose to include additional information or other data at your discretion, but you mustcompletely document the sources. Use the data to:• Develop a mathematical model (or models) to produce estimated fan votes (which areunknown and a closely guarded secret) for each contestant for the weeks they competed.o Does your model correctly estimate fan votes that lead to results consistent with whowas eliminated each week? Provide measures of the consistency.o How much certainty is there in the fan vote totals you produced, and is that certaintyalways the same for each contestant/week? Provide measures of your certainty for theestimates.• Use your fan vote estimates with the rest of the data to:o Compare and contrast the results produced by the two approaches used by the show tocombine judge and fan votes (i.e. rank and percentage) across seasons (i.e. apply bothapproaches to each season). If differences in outcomes exist, does one method seemto favor fan votes more than the other?o Examine the two voting methods applied to specific celebrities where there was“controversy”, meaning differences between judges and fans. Would the choice ofmethod to combine judge scores and fan votes have led to the same result for each ofthese contestants? How would including the additional approach of having judgeschoose which of the bottom two couples to eliminate each week impact the results?Some examples you might consider (there may also be others you identified): season 2 –Jerry Rice, runner up despite the lowest judges scores in 5 weeks. season 4 – Billy Ray Cyrus was 5th despite last place judge scores in 6 weeks. season 11 – Bristol Palin was 3rd with the lowest judge scores 12 times. season 27 – Bobby Bones won the despite consistently low judges scoreso Based on your analysis, which of the two methods would you recommend using forfuture seasons and why? Would you suggest including the additional approach ofjudges choosing from the bottom two couples?• Use the data including your fan vote estimates to develop a model that analyzes the impact ofvarious pro dancers as well as characteristics for the celebrities available in the data (age,industry, etc). How much do such things impact how well a celebrity will do in thecompetition? Do they impact judges scores and fan votes in the same way?• Propose another system using fan votes and judge scores each week that you believe is more“fair” (or “better” in some other way such as making the show more exciting for the fans).Provide support for why your approach should be adopted by the show producers.• Produce a report of no more than 25 pages with your findings and include a one- to two-pagememo summarizing your results with advice for producers of DWTS on the impact of howjudge and fan votes are combined with recommendations for how to do so in future seasons.《与星共舞》Dancing with the Stars简称DWTS是源⾃英国节⽬《舞动奇迹》Strictly Come Dancing原名“Come Dancing”的国际电视系列节⽬的美国版本。
该节⽬曾在阿尔巴尼亚、阿根廷、澳⼤利亚、中国、法国、印度等众多国家播出。
本⽂重点讨论的美国版本已播出34季。
明星与专业舞者搭档每周表演舞蹈。
专家评审团对每对组合的舞蹈进⾏评分粉丝则通过电话或⽹络投票选出当周最喜欢的组合。
粉丝可以投票⼀次或多次但每次投票次数上限都会公布。
此外粉丝可以投票选择他们希望留下的明星但不能投票淘汰明星。
评委和粉丝的投票结果将综合起来决定当周淘汰哪对组合综合得分最低的组合。
三对某些季数更多组合进⼊决赛在决赛周将综合粉丝和评委的评分⽤于对他们进⾏排名。
英⽯⾄ 3rd 或 4th5th。
将粉丝投票和评委评分结合起来的⽅法有很多种。
在美国版节⽬的前两季中这种结合是基于排名的。
第⼆季由于名⼈选⼿杰瑞·赖斯Jerry Rice尽管评委评分很低却仍然进⼊了决赛因此出现了⼀些问题导致排名被替换为百分⽐。
附录中提供了这两种⽅法的⽰例。
在第27季中名⼈选⼿鲍⽐·博恩斯Bobby Bones虽然评委评分⼀直很低却最终夺冠引发了另⼀场“争议”。
为了应对这⼀情况从第28季开始淘汰赛制略作调整。
节⽬组⾸先根据评委评分和观众投票综合选出排名最低的两名选⼿然后在直播节⽬中由评委投票决定淘汰哪⼀位。
⼤约在同⼀季节⽬组也恢复了第⼀季和第⼆季的排名制即结合评委评分和观众投票进⾏排名。
具体是哪⼀季的调整尚不清楚但可以合理推测是第28季。
评委评分旨在反映舞者的技术⽔平但评判舞蹈优劣带有⼀定的主观性。
粉丝投票则更为主观不仅受舞蹈质量的影响也受明星的⼈⽓和魅⼒影响。
节⽬制作⽅或许更乐⻅意⻅和投票结果出现分歧因为这有助于提升粉丝的兴趣和热情。
以下提供并描述了评委评分和参赛者信息等数据。
您可以酌情添加其他信息或数据但必须完整注明数据来源。
请使⽤这些数据· 建⽴⼀个或多个数学模型以估算每位参赛者在⽐赛周内的粉丝投票数这些投票数是未知的并且是严格保密的。
o 你的模型能否正确估算粉丝投票结果并使结果与每周淘汰的⼈员⼀致请提供⼀致性指标。
您对粉丝投票总数的估计有多⼤把握这种把握对于每位参赛者/每周是否都相同请提供您估计结果的把握程度指标。
o· 将你的粉丝投票预测结果与其他数据结合使⽤可以 o⽐较并对⽐节⽬中两种将评委投票和观众投票即排名和百分⽐相结合的⽅法在不同赛季中产⽣的结果即每季都应⽤这两种⽅法。
如果结果存在差异哪种⽅法似乎更偏向观众投票分析两种针对特定名⼈的投票⽅法这些⽅法在评委和粉丝意⻅存在“争议”的情况下会产⽣怎样的结果。
如果采⽤评委评分和粉丝投票相结合的⽅法是否会导致每位参赛者都获得相同的结果如果增加⼀种由评委每周从排名垫底的两对情侣中淘汰哪⼀对的策略结果⼜会受到怎样的影响以下是⼀些您可以考虑的例⼦当然您也可以想到其他例⼦- 第⼆季——杰瑞·赖斯尽管五周以来评委评分最低但仍获得亚军。
- 第四季——⽐利·雷·赛勒斯当时5岁th尽管在6周内获得了垫底的评委评分。
- 第11季——布⾥斯托尔·佩林排名第3rd获得最低裁判评分12次。
- 第27季——鲍⽐·博恩斯尽管评委评分⼀直很低最终还是赢得了⽐赛。
根据您的分析您建议在未来的赛季中使⽤哪种⽅法为什么您是否建议增加评委从排名垫底的两对选⼿中选出最终赢家的环节oo· 利⽤包括粉丝投票预测在内的数据建⽴⼀个模型分析不同专业舞者以及数据中可⽤名⼈特征年龄、⾏业等的影响。
这些因素对名⼈⽐赛表现的影响程度如何它们对评委评分和粉丝投票的影响⽅式是否相同
分——运行结果通过网盘分享的文件【2026_MCM美赛资源】思路、代码、论文.rar链接:https://pan.baidu.com/s/1lsXsMGLvQMFc9ev3m7qXgg?pwd3h97提取码: 3h97--来自百度网盘超级会员v7的分享
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